'Remember, markets are based on differing opinions. Some are bullish; some are bearish. But keep in mind that they are just opinions and in that sense, guesses as to how the market might respond to a particular scenario. The only true proof consists of the price action. It either confirms or validates ones opinion or it does not. It really is that simple.' - Dan Norcini
Figured it out
The metals charts look like death and I'd be surprised if they don't soon make new lows, but at least I've finally figured out when the next leg of the gold and silver bull market will begin. So let's get right to the opening pitch
Everyone is surely familiar with my "10-Year yields measured in ounces of silver" chart. My charts go back to 1990; the amount of silver you get every year for lending the Feddle Gummint your hard earned cash for 10 years has steadily been going down, but it started to descend really fast at the turn of the century.
Just by quick inspection, it seems likely that the chart is now officially headed to the top of the diverging trend "wedge" ... meaning yields have quite a ways to rise, or silver has quite a ways to fall, or both.
In fact, every major leg of the bull market in gold starts when that top trend line is hit (see below; gold's chart is in the background, blue). Note also that corrections invariably begin whenever the lower trend line is hit.
And it's almost like clockwork: 164.5% increase in gold as the yields-in-silver chart goes from top trend line to lower. To extrapolate, if gold closes a week at say $1150 by the time the top line is hit, that would mean it should go just past $3000 before the next correction.
And though this week marked the lowest closing gold price in 3 years (!!), a lower weekly close of $1150 seems likely (see log and linear weekly closing charts below)
So we all just need to patiently wait for that to happen. Sooner the better I say. (Worth mentioning: I believe Martin Armstrong has said gold at $970 before August would mean the bull market will resume.)
At any rate the two GDXJ-ratio three line break charts just added new weekly bars. Zero reason for short-term bullishness, whatever you may read elsewhere.